Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
